EV Universe #140: Cybertrek to Arctic — Tesla Semi now in Europe — XPeng Mona 03 launch

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AUTOMAKERS & GLOBAL NEWS

EVs are not dead. The EV market is not dying. In fact, it’s still growing.

In case you missed it, I posted a huge report on Tuesday on the EV sales of the first half of 2024.

It created quite a lot of buzz around the web with thousands of new visits to our blog, and I think we’ve managed to fight at least some of the misconceptions on EV progress around there.

A few findings that stood out to me the most:

• Even after all the doom, EVs sales have been growing so far this year with 12.4% compared to the first half of last year.

• There are now 12 countries that have crossed 20% in fully electric market share;

• 36 markets increased their EV sales, while 16 countries declined.

• ‘Rest of World’ EV sales, as we already knew to expect, grew 40.1% — significantly more than US (7.3%), China (13.5%) and Europe (1.6%). And that’s just getting started.

• Note, that Europe in total grew 7.2%, if you don’t include Germany weighing it down.

There’s plenty of great graphs in the report, so don’t miss it:

First-ever Tesla Semis were spotted in Europe.

First seen on August 22nd, at least one of these are likely going to be displayed on Hannover’s IAA Transportation 2024 show in mid-September. Tesla Semi program lead, Dan Priestley, is a keynote speaker there on 17th and goes over PepsiCo Semi case study on 18th. (link)

I also found out Tesla is giving Semi test drives there, so I now decided I need to go and give you some exclusive coverage from the spot. If you’re attending the IAA Transportation show in Hannover let’s meet up!

We reported in our last newsletter that Tesla was looking for the Head of Business Development for the Semi program in Europe — it looks like the plans to introduce the Semi in Europe are taking shape.

The timing makes sense — pilot projects have been running in the US for a while and the Tesla Semi factory at Giga Nevada is being built as we speak, the first steel beams just went up.

The production should start late next year and the first deliveries from the factory should come in 2026. So other than any pilot runs, I’d say we can expect more Semis roaming on our streets around 26/27.

Musk has hinted that Tesla might build Semis in Europe too, but I’d assume it will want to go through the production ramp-up in the Nevada factory first.

I’ve dug deeper into the electric truck scene quite a lot recently, some of it thanks to our Voltera collaboration, and some of it just because there’s now so much exciting happening in the space! We’re at a point of scaling up, both actually viable e-truck and the necessary infrastructure-wise. Megawatt chargers going up, e-truck charging hubs being built.

In our latest Pro Report (#139), I shared the Windrose Semi truck stats down to the battery pack and efficiency that we got from Wen Han of Windrose through my public LinkedIn conversation with him. I started out being a little skeptical of their numbers there, but we’re seeing actual validation from pilots too. I like the transparency he brings in, we really need more of that.

Teaser: I might or might not have an interview coming up in the electric trucking space, exclusively for you guys ;)

Update on Ford’s EV plans:

“Broader electrification choices”.

My translation: Ford walks back on some EV plans. Luckily, not on all of them.

• Ford completely scraps plans for the three-row electric SUV, makes it a hybrid instead.

• Ford reduces overall annual capital expenditures dedicated to BEVs from 40% to 30%, “will focus more strongly on hybrid drivetrains”.

• New electric commercial van launch in 2026 (from Ohio) prioritized.

• An ‘affordable mid-sized electric pickup truck' designed by Ford’s California “skunkworks team” coming in 2027 and

• Another electric pickup, the previously code-named “Project T3”, comes in the second half of 2027. It’ll be a “next-gen truck to be assembled in Tennessee”, with “advanced aerodynamics”.
  Note, that T3 was supposed to start already in 2025, per their announcement last year — this is another delay in plans.

• Low-cost platform still in plans, “first affordable vehicle off this new platform will be a mid-sized electric pickup launching in 2027.”

• Ford paused its Canadian cathode material plant construction (with SK On and EcoPro BM), and already scrapped the plans of the three-row e-SUV from Oakville Ontario plant as we’ve reported.

Not explicitly mentioned here but reading between the lines, it looks like Ford isn’t planning to use its elite “skunkworks team” to actually produce a competitive mass-market regular EV, but rather goes pick-up truck first. I might be wrong, but this seems like a switch in plans here, not said out loud.

Ford also plans to switch up its battery play for more domestic production — like bringing the Mach-E battery production from Poland to Michigan next year, to qualify for the federal tax credits. The Kentucky plant of its BlueOval SK joint venture (with SK On) will produce e-Transit and F-150⚡️ and the Tennessee plant will make cells for the electric commercial vans and the next-gen electric truck. It’ll also start producing LFP cells in the BlueOval Battery Park in Michigan in 2026 (also gives them extra tax credits).

Jim Farley says “An affordable electric vehicle starts with an affordable battery. If you are not competitive on battery cost, you are not competitive.”

I hope we’re still yet to hear of Ford building a mass-market non-pickup EV sooner than… 2028ish after the pickups come to market.

I also can’t help but think of the Korean automaker CEOs who are probably their hands as the US legacy automakers scale down EVs and the US gov hits the Chinese with 100% import tariffs.

Hyundai, Kia wins of this. Rivian, Lucid and all EV startups actually have another chance to the enter or thrive on the market. Tesla is unaffected because its lead in the US is already massive anyway (still ~50% of EV market).

Quick takes:

• Canada follows the US and announces a 100% tariff on all Chinese-made EVs, including on the Teslas coming from Shanghai, going into effect on October 1st. (link)

• EU reduces Tesla’s new import tariff to 9%, from the initially proposed 20.8%, after an individual investigation (link). Changes others a little too: BYD 17.0%; Geely 19.3%; SAIC 36.3%; average 21.3% to others, and 36.3% to non-cooperating companies.

• Tesla renews its referral program (currently in US & CA only): $500 per each referral, up to $5k, can be used towards a new Tesla purchase, merch, Supercharging miles and more.
  Referees get $1,000 off a new Tesla. If you already own one, you’ll also get $1k off yourself. Here’s an updated list from our friend Sawyer on all the promotions Tesla is running in the US right now: (link).

• Rivian also launches a new referral program in the US (link), through the end of the year you can get $750 worth of credits toward the Gear Shop or R1 Shop and 6 months of free Rivian Adventure Network charging (up to 3 years total).
  The first 100 owners that make 25 qualifying referrals are invited a special Rivian Adventure Weekend hosted next year.

• Tesla can challenge the Louisiana direct sales ban, the US appeals court has ruled (link), giving way to potentially establishing sales in the state. Tesla recently scored a win to do so in Kentucky.

• Polestar’s founder Thomas Ingenlath will step down as CEO. Michael Lohscheller, who has held both Vinfast (2021-22) and Nikola (2022-23) CEO roles recently, takes his place. He was also Opel CFO in 2012-17 and CEO 2017-21; CFO of VW US 2008-12 and CFO of Mitsubishi in 2001-04.

• 🇨🇦 Click tip: Canada introduces a ZEV Council Dashboard, to give insights into EV adoption and charging infrastructure across Canada. I love resources like these. Yet I still can’t figure out what takes them so long to release the Q2 sales data…

EV SPOTLIGHT: XPeng’s Mona M03

XPeng launches Mona M03 sedan in China. We’re excited for it because it’ll reach our shores as well, and I believe it to be a rather influential model. You’ll see why.

Mona M03 is available in three versions, named after their respective ranges in km:

• Prices:
  515 — 119,800 yuan ($16,800)
  620 — 129,800 yuan ($18,200)
  580 Max — 155,800 yuan ($21,850);

• Battery between 51.8kWh or 62.2kWh respectively, LFP batteries supplied by BYD’s FinDreams division;

• Range as noted, 515-620km (320mi - 385mi);

• Performance: 140kW motor with a 7.8s 0-100km/h (0-62mph) on the lower trim, or 160kW for 7.4s. Max version gives 250Nm torque compared to 225nM for the middle version. All versions are front wheel drive;

• Efficiency: per CEO, 11.5kWh/100km (0.185 kWh/ mile), also wild;

• Deliveries: The first two versions are already in production, starting deliveries in September. XPeng reported receiving 30,000 orders in the first 48 hours;

• Dimensions: L 4,780mm; W 1,896; H 1,445; wheelbase 2,815mm, slightly larger of the Tesla M3 , with slightly shorter wheelbase;

• Interior: very minimal and buttonless similar to Tesla, with an infotainment screen in the middle — and of course gesture and voice controls help you. 18 PSS speakers, a large panoramic sunroof, and heated & ventilated seats in the front;

• Trunk space 621 liters;

• Aerodynamics: 0.194 Cd, among the lowest in the world for all-electric hatchback sedans.

Similar to Xiaomi’s rather successful first EV, XPeng will here offer plenty of options for upgrade — from a pluggable instrument panel for ~$84, to a fragrance dispenser, a headrest pillow, and an ice crystal sunshade.

Why is this model so important? I’d say the price and what you get for it — even in today’s China EV market. Not even going to mention the rest of the world.

Although not exactly comparable in all aspects, like performance, the Mona 03 is about half of the Model 3 in China right now. And looking at the car, I’d expect it can easily double the price and still be competitive in Europe. The CEO also says that all variants of the Mona M03 “are priced to bring in profits”. You know the whole industry will be watching if and how they’ll do that.

The CEO, He Xiaopeng, doesn’t hold back on the Model 3 comparisons: “The first model in the Mona series is named the M03 and is meant to honor the Tesla Model 3”

Here’s a full walkaround of the car on video.

What’s next?

Oh, the EV industry in China can’t stop won’t stop. In a few weeks, we’ll see Nio’s subbrand Onvo come to market with its L60. Similarly, made to be as affordable and latest-tech as possible, this one targeting specifically the Model Y. We covered everything there is to know back in Pro Report #132, and we’ll likely do another EV spotlight in the following newsletters.

Arctic Cybertrek

Two Cybertrucks driving to the end of the road in Tuktoyaktuk, touching the Arctic Ocean.

EV content creators known as Teslatino (with Teslatina), BeardedTesla, and BlueSkyKites are taking on an Arctic expedition. (link)

They’ll be driving two Cybertrucks on this journey, with the harder trek part of the trip being about 740 kilometers (460 miles) on road with no pavement, built on permafrost.

They start from Dawson City in Yukon and plan to reach the Arctic hamlet of Inuvik in Northwest Terriotories, northern edge of the boreal forest, in three days. Then, they’ll traverse over the permafrost of the arctic tundra to reach the Arctic Ocean in Tuktoyakyuk.

It is the only year-round public highway that crosses the Arctic Circle ​and brings travelers to the end of the continent.

On Monday, they were just about to have their last Supercharging spot of the trip, after which they’ll need to rely on whatever else is out there. They’ll need to rely on the CCS chargers “out there”.

If someone tells you the range of EVs is poor, perhaps we should all just point to the full extent of Justin’s road trip to even get to the start point of the trek, as he started from Florida a while ago.

PS, if you want to support their trek, you can get the Arctic CyberTrek stickers through here, 100% of the funds go towards their trip. You can also find the donating link on their social handles found above.

CHARGING

Stable Auto, which monitors thousands of L3 and L2 chargers in the US, created a gasoline price equivalent index for EV charging across US states and compares how much you can save in each state.

Three key findings:

• EV drivers save, on average, about 51% on gasoline costs compared to typical ICE drivers, with savings ranging from 33% to 71% depending on the state.

• The average cost of EV charging equates to gasoline priced at $1.66 per gallon, nearly $2.00 less than the average gasoline price in America.

• Washington drivers benefit the most, saving $2.70 per gallon equivalent, a 64% discount, thanks to the region's hydropower. Louisiana saves the least, at $1.04 per gallon, a 34% win.

Note that they had to use some averages for this: an average efficiency of an EV of 100 MPGe (miles per gallon equivalent), and an average ICE at 25MPG. Charging price is deduced of the average usage research by ICCT: 63% charging at home, 21% at L2 and 16% at public DC.

Here are the graphs showing the situation per state, and here is a spreadsheet with specific calculations per state and assumptions. Huge shoutout to Stable Auto for being so open with the data, this transparency is exactly what we need in our industry.

Quick kW ⚡️ 

• The Case of Disappearing MegaChargers: A Tesla driver spotted a mobile Tesla Semi truck charging station in Tooele, Utah, which was also soon removed. (photos) The charger has “MCU1” written on it, which I assume would mean Mega(watt) Charging Unit 1 perhaps? 

• 🇺🇸 The US government has made $148 million available in NEVI grants to 24 recipients across 20 US states to repair and upgrade charging infrastructure (link). This should repair or upgrade ~4,500 existing EV charging ports.

• 🇸🇰 Event: ejoin is opening the most powerful EV hub in Slovakia, in Bratislava. It’s the first deployment of Huawei’s liquid-cooled Rapid Tower power unit in Europe and will able to provide up to 600kW per connector, or dynamically share the 600kW among the 6 dispensers on the site. There’s also an ejoin lounge with amenities for drivers, including a screen to see charging info from inside. The launch event will have a Cybertruck appearance, too. Let me know if you’d like an invite to the event (free, but invite-only), or contact Martin on LinkedIn.

• Here’s a definitive answer on why you can’t use Cybertruck’s power outlets while the Cybertruck is charging, from the Cybertruck lead engineer, Wes Morrill.

• 🇮🇳 Exponent Energy in India partners launches an e-bus & charging system that charges at a Megawatt level, reaching 0-100% in 15 minutes. They say they’re third in the world in such a system, after Siemens and Tesla, and test runs will start in a 650km Bengaluru-Hyderabad route. (link to news and also system explanation video)

• 🎧️ Listen tip: EV Charging for urban neighborhoods, with Tiya Gordon of Itselectric, on the Volts podcast. (link) I believe access to charging in every location a person spends moretime in (home, work, shopping, venues, highway) is one of the keys to solving complete EV adoption. You won’t need to charge everywhere, but if you can, you’re always good to go.